What does a Trump presidency mean for climate tech startups?
In this edition, Martin Keighley, the CEO of US-based CarbonFree, shares insights on how the incoming US government will impact climate tech.
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How intertwined are policy and innovation? Does climate tech investing and green innovation have the momentum behind it to survive and even thrive in another Trump era? Hang on to your seatbelts Green Techpreneurs – there may be some bumps in the road ahead!
Donald Trump’s election victory poses significant risks to climate innovation and action in the United States and globally.
Trump has promised to:
Withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement again
Rescind unspent funds from the Inflation Reduction Act, which provided major investments in clean energy
Expand fossil fuel production, particularly oil and gas drilling.
Weaken environmental regulations: the Environmental Protection Agency's authority to regulate carbon emissions could be curtailed and requirements for companies to disclose climate risks may be removed.
New tariffs on imports could increase costs for clean energy technologies
Federal support and incentives for renewable energy may be reduced.
There may be budget cuts to climate research agencies like NOAA
Communication of climate science by federal agencies could be restricted
But government policy isn’t the only driving force playing a vital role in shaping the innovation landscape. The sector has come a long way since 2016 and is in a much stronger position now. The transition to clean energy has gained significant momentum, driven by lower costs and accelerating innovation in clean energy technologies. US state and local leaders have demonstrated their independent ability to drive climate action. The global green economy is worth over $10 trillion annually, representing 10% of world GDP. And in the US, there are at least 10 million jobs in the green economy compared to just 300,000 in fossil fuels.
Internationally, the race is still on for dominion and adoption of clean technologies. China is already dominating in several aspects of clean technology, India is also heavily investing in the clean tech sector, and the EU’s Net-Zero Industry Act came as a counterbalance to the US’ IRA and aims to scale up manufacturing of clean technologies in Europe.
So what can climate tech startups do to mitigate risk and press ahead in terrain that’s become more uncertain?
In this Green Techpreneur interview, Martin Keighley, the CEO of US-based CarbonFree, talks about the potential impact on US climate tech of another Trump presidency.
What was your journey to becoming a Green Techpreneur?
I started my journey in global chemical businesses, leading transformations and scaling early-stage technologies. At Tata Chemicals North America, I integrated and grew the $460 million soda ash business. As Managing Director of Brunner Mond, I helped patent a sodium bicarbonate product for the waste incineration market, creating a $40 million business in two years. I also led a $45 million cost-saving project, establishing Europe’s most efficient power plant and setting the stage for a successful IPO.
Now, as CEO of CarbonFree, I’m dedicated to helping hard-to-abate sectors like cement and steel reduce their carbon emissions using our SkyCycle technology, which captures carbon emitted from industrial plants before it enters the atmosphere and recycles it into a zero-carbon calcium carbonate product.
Which carbon capture technologies do you deploy and what projects are in your pipeline?
Our first-generation solution, SkyMine technology, captures up to 50,000 metric tons of CO₂ per year at a cement plant in San Antonio, it converts captured carbon into baking soda.
Our second-generation SkyCycle technology, set for commercial deployment, will capture up to 50,000 metric tons of CO₂ annually per plant, producing calcium carbonate (limestone) – a stable and long-term carbon storage solution.
We partnered with U.S. Steel to install the first commercial carbon capture plant at North America's Gary Works steel mill, targeting significant CO₂ reductions in the steel sector. And, depending on the needs of the industrial plants that we work with, we believe the size of SkyCycle plants can be scaled to capture 500,000 metric tons of carbon or more.
What was your first reaction to the US election result?
For months we’ve been preparing for what happened during the election, and we knew that the decarbonisation sector would change regardless of its outcome. In the context of CarbonFree, we remain full steam ahead.
For manufacturers, we know that they remain interested in sustainable and recycled materials as long as the price is competitive and quality is equivalent or higher quality, which our calcium carbonate is. For hard-to-abate industries, we believe that their sustainability will continue largely uninterrupted, meaning they are still focused on solutions like SkyCycle to reduce their carbon footprints.
Why are hard-to-abate industries likely to still adopt carbon reduction solutions, if emissions regulations disappear?
First, many of these companies have already invested millions into their sustainability programmes, meaning it’s unlikely for these programmes to simply disappear. As company leaders, as well as their investors, customers, and consumers, continue to focus on sustainability, carbon capture remains a viable option for many of these operations.
Secondly, carbon capture provides numerous benefits to the communities in which industrial plants operate.
What do you see as the worst possible outcome of Trump for climate tech?
A new administration has the potential to significantly scale back opportunities for climate tech, whether by withdrawing from the Paris Agreement or weakening policies related to the Inflation Reduction Act and 45Q tax credits that support carbon capture. On a more granular basis, carbon capture has the potential to be deprioritized due to reduced emphasis on climate policy.
Nevertheless, corporate and public sectors will face pressure to uphold sustainable practices that drive market incentives for carbon capture technology. Many large corporations are likely to retain self-imposed net-zero targets, focusing on Scope 3 emissions reductions. States like California and New York, along with other regions with progressive environmental policies, may also continue enforcing stringent climate regulations. Additionally, U.S.-based companies must maintain these sustainability targets to remain competitive in markets like the European Union.
What is the most optimistic scenario for climate tech?
In addition to any government recognition, we also hope that companies recognise the economic and community benefits our industry can provide. For example, carbon capture projects like ours can create as many as 50 direct jobs per project and more than 370 indirect jobs, while providing cleaner air to the communities surrounding large industrial plants. Companies will ideally continue to capitalise on these types of benefits, regardless of the decisions made by the incoming administration.
How can climate tech startups and companies protect themselves against regulatory and geopolitical instability?
Climate tech startups must evaluate and prioritize technologies that don’t rely on government incentives or carbon tax credits. For example, our SkyCycle produces endurocal, a zero-carbon calcium carbonate that can be sold wholesale to manufacture an array of everyday items, including plastics and paints, at a lower cost base than the incumbent chemical processes.
Attracting private investors will remain essential for climate tech startups. I expect investors to increasingly focus on technologies that provide scalable, near-term answers to climate issues, as long as it proves to provide profitable returns. We're seeing a growing preference for solutions with clear commercialisation paths and measurable impact, marking a shift from high-risk R&D projects to proven technologies that can be quickly implemented.
The Green Techpreneur (GT) is here to #SparkTheTransition to a world where people, planet and profit align. We are a springboard platform for climate tech startups: we offer an investor/startup marketplace to help you raise funds and a magazine to share innovation and insight – by founders for founders. Join our network of over 5,200 climate tech entrepreneurs, investors, and sustainability warriors. Investors: view and contact our startups raising funds here.
If you are a US-based climate tech startup, and would like to receive support with expanding into Europe and the UK, get in touch. We’re happy to connect and support the sector so we can all win - regardless of Trump and his policies.
Want to read more? Catch up on these interviews with climate tech innovators:
How these brothers harnessed the carbon markets to rescue India’s tea plantations
How mining giant Rio Tinto and Founders Factory selected their 2024 cohort
‘Failure is not failure, but being foolhardy can be your downfall’
Thank you for reading and listening to The Green Techpreneur.
Enjoy your weekend! 🎉
✨#SparkTheTransition,
•• An Open Letter to Trump Voters ••
The True Cost of Your Ignorance and Idolatry
https://open.substack.com/pub/patricemersault/p/an-open-letter-to-trump-voters?r=4d7sow&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web